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WB analysts wrote that the surplus is so significant that it will probably restrict the price influence of a broader conflict in the Middle East.
However, in general, commodity prices will stay 30 per cent above their levels in the five years prior to the COVID-19 outbreak.
It is predicted that in 2025, there will be an excess of 1.2 million bpd in oil supply compared to demand. There have been only two instances of a greater surplus - the pandemic in 2020 and the oil price crash in 1998. One of the reasons for the excess supply is the fact that oil demand in China is staying close to 2023 levels as a result of a slowdown in industrial production growth and purchases of electric vehicles and LNG trucks.
Many countries outside of OPEC+ are anticipated to raise their oil output. The alliance retains a large amount of unused capacity of 7 million bpd, nearly twice the amount before the pandemic in 2019.
There is a forecast that global commodity prices will decrease by close to 10 percent from 2024 to 2026.
Energy expenses are anticipated to decrease by 6 per cent in the upcoming year, with a further 2 per cent decline projected for 2026.
source: worldbank.org
However, in general, commodity prices will stay 30 per cent above their levels in the five years prior to the COVID-19 outbreak.
It is predicted that in 2025, there will be an excess of 1.2 million bpd in oil supply compared to demand. There have been only two instances of a greater surplus - the pandemic in 2020 and the oil price crash in 1998. One of the reasons for the excess supply is the fact that oil demand in China is staying close to 2023 levels as a result of a slowdown in industrial production growth and purchases of electric vehicles and LNG trucks.
Many countries outside of OPEC+ are anticipated to raise their oil output. The alliance retains a large amount of unused capacity of 7 million bpd, nearly twice the amount before the pandemic in 2019.
There is a forecast that global commodity prices will decrease by close to 10 percent from 2024 to 2026.
Energy expenses are anticipated to decrease by 6 per cent in the upcoming year, with a further 2 per cent decline projected for 2026.
source: worldbank.org