The Strategist

Fitch predicts a shortage on the European gas market



01/21/2025 - 05:15



Fitch, the international rating agency, forecasts that the European gas market will face a supply shortfall this year, resulting in elevated prices.



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“We anticipate that the European market will face a supply deficit in 2025, resulting in elevated and extremely fluctuating gas prices.” According to our EMEA Utilities Outlook 2025, "we anticipate the average TTF index gas price to reach $11 per thousand cubic feet, which is an increase compared to 2024,” the report reads.

It is observed that a chillier winter, coupled with an early drain of European gas storage, heightens global rivalry for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and results in increased prices. Furthermore, the EU's possible sanctions on Russian LNG might additionally influence prices in the European gas market.

At that, heightened fluctuations in gas and electricity prices in the European market since late last year, driven by cold weather, the intended halt of Russian gas deliveries through Ukraine, and intensified global competition for LNG, stays within Fitch's projections for the utilities sector.

source: fitchratings.com