The Strategist

WTO head: Trade war between the US and China may drag the world into recession



04/18/2025 - 03:12



According to Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the head of the World Trade Organization (WTO), if the trade war between the US and China persists, the global GDP will contract by 7% in the long run. The standoff between the countries could divide the world into two trading blocs, forcing nations to decide who to trade with, Ms. Okonjo-Iweala stated.



World Trade Organization via flickr
World Trade Organization via flickr
"We are quite worried about what we perceive as a possible split in trade between the U.S. and China; we genuinely wish to prevent a scenario of geopolitical fragmentation," Ms. Okonjo-Iweala told the Financial Times.

In the document “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics,” WTO economists revised the global GDP growth forecast (at market exchange rates) downward by 0.6 percentage points, predicting it will reach 2.2% in 2025. Analysts predict that by 2026, the growth will bounce back to 2.4%. Before the duties were implemented, experts initially forecasted that the economy would expand by 2.8% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.

The United States increased tariffs on Chinese products by 145%. In turn, China imposed a 125% tariff on goods exported from the United States. Reuters reported that Chinese officials are seeking to persuade other nations to contest the U.S. tariffs.

source: ft.com